Uganda Sovereign Debt Market Overview – 2025 Edition

By Impala Market Team

📌 Executive Snapshot

• Total Public Debt: UGX 96.2 trillion (~USD 25.5 billion)

• Debt-to-GDP Ratio: ~48.2%

• Debt Split: ~61% domestic vs. ~39% external

• Outlook: Uganda’s local debt market is expanding in response to constrained external financing conditions. There's growing appetite for long-term maturities and greater focus on transparency and accessibility.

🔍 1. Debt Market Structure

Total Public Debt Profile (Q1 2025)

• Domestic: UGX 58.7 trillion

• External: UGX 37.5 trillion

• Debt Service-to-Revenue: Over 40% in FY 2023/24

• Source: MoFPED Quarterly Debt Bulletin Q2 2023/24

Governance & Framework

• Debt Management: MoFPED’s Debt Management Unit (DMU)

• Issuance/Auction Manager: Bank of Uganda (BoU)

• Legal Framework: Public Finance Management Act (2015)

• 📎 Key Links:

  • BoU Auction Results

  • MoFPED Debt Reports

🏦 2. Domestic Debt Instruments

• Retail Access expanding via brokers and fintech

• Secondary Market remains OTC, with pricing via BoU and primary dealers

🌍 3. External Debt

• Multilateral: World Bank (IDA), IMF, AfDB

• Bilateral: China Exim, JICA, Saudi Fund

• Eurobonds: Not yet issued

• Green/ESG Instruments: Being explored under Uganda’s Climate Finance Strategy

🔗 IMF Uganda Country Report

👥 4. Investor Base

Domestic Holders

• Commercial Banks

• NSSF

• Insurance Companies

• Pension/Asset Managers

Foreign Participation

• Free currency and capital flows, however, restricted by currency risk and FX liquidity

• Investors must register with BoU and trade via local custodians

🔁 5. Secondary and OTC Market

• OTC trades dominate activity

• Settlement via BoU Central Securities Depository (CSD)

• Yields published biweekly: BoU Yield Curve

• Trading: Broker-dealer networks, no dedicated bond exchange yet.

Uganda is exploring sovereign bond trading through the Uganda Securities Exchange (USE) and AltX. USE is a locally recognized entity to issue ISINs by the Association of National Numbering Agencies (ANNA). ALTX is an exchange where secondary market trading of depository receipts, underlined by bonds, has been ongoing for the last 8+ years.

📊 6. Recent Trends

• 1-Year T-Bills: Now yield 18–20% (Q1 2025)

  • 📈 Driven by:

    • BoU policy rate hike to 10.75% (March 2025)

    • Persistent core inflation

    • Domestic borrowing pressures

• Longer tenor bonds favored (10–15 years)

• Digital and mobile retail participation on the rise

⚠️ 7. Risk Assessment

• Sustainability: Moderate risk (IMF/World Bank DSA)

• Risks: Currency depreciation, interest rate volatility, fiscal deficits

• FX Exposure: High, with exposure to USD, EUR, JPY, and CNY

✅ 8. Opportunities & Reforms

• Develop green bonds and diaspora bonds

• Launch a digital bond trading platform via USE or private fintech platforms like AltX

• Enhance auction transparency & retail access

• Expand mobile-based investment participation

• Align public debt strategy with SDGs and climate resilience

9. Annexes

• 📉 Current Yield Curve

• 📆 Auction Calendar: Biweekly (Wednesdays)

• 🔐 Credit Ratings:

  • Moody’s: B3 (Negative)

  • S&P: B- (Stable)

• 🧰 Key Data Sources:

  • BoU Statistics

  • MoFPED Debt Reports

📬 For Investors & Researchers

Uganda’s sovereign debt market is maturing with credible returns for local currency investors, especially amid global tightening. With improving systems and fintech access, Uganda remains a frontier market to watch.

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