Impala Market Weekly Commentary: Uganda Bond Market Insights (Week Ending 09 May 2025)
By Impala Market Team
🔄 Review vs Forecast: What We Got Right
Last week's market activity confirmed expectations from our prior outlook:
📅 Weekly Overview
Despite a quiet week on the primary auction calendar, Uganda's secondary market was active and deep, with turnover exceeding UGX 363 billion on Friday alone.
Investor flows remained concentrated in:
Medium-tenor zero-coupon bonds (2025–2026)
Long-end benchmark bonds (2039 and 2043 maturities)
High-yielding corporate-like exposures including 16.375% 2032 and 18.5% 2042 paper.
There was sustained demand for 13.5% 09-Jul-2026, trading around YTM 15.50% to 16.50%, and a strong rotation back into 2043 long bonds at yields north of 17.4%.
🔹 Yield Curve Dynamics
Short-term yields (0–1Y) held steady around 11.5%–12.5%.
Medium-term (2–5Y): firmed to 15.3%–16.0%.
Long-end (10Y–20Y): saw renewed appetite at high yields (17.2%–18.2%).
The yield curve remains steep, offering tactical carry and capital gain opportunities if sentiment improves ahead of the 14 May bond auction.
📈 Weekly Alpha Brief (For Active Investors)
1. Bond Market Momentum Building
Trading volume and breadth indicate growing risk appetite.
Bonds are seeing healthy two-way flows, especially around 2039/2043 maturities.
2. Curve Play: Buy Long, Sell Mid
Long bonds (15.0% 2043 and 15.8% 2039) offer ~17.5–18.2% YTM.
Mid-curve bonds have tightened slightly; reallocate duration if you expect macro stability.
3. Auction Anticipation: 14 May 2025
Expected reopenings of 3Y, 10Y, and 15Y.
Tactical buyers should enter early (this week) before pre-auction demand flattens the curve.
4. Cash + Carry
14.000% 29-May-2025 remains a strong parking play at 11.5–12.0% YTM.
Pairs well with long bonds to balance liquidity and yield.
🛍️ Look Ahead: Week Starting 13 May 2025
Primary Auction (14 May): Reopening of benchmark 3Y, 10Y, 15Y.
Watch for: Auction cut-off spreads vs. secondary market to gauge market conviction.
Trade idea: Buy midweek weakness in 2039s if yields push >17.7%.
📢 OTC Desk Call to Action
🎯 Traders, Dealers & Investment Clubs
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