Impala Market Weekly Commentary: Uganda Bond Market (Week Ending 01 August 2025)
THE WEEK IN SUMMARY
Liquidity Pulled Back: Post-T-Bill auction, trading volumes cooled off to UGX 166.3B, reflecting tighter cash conditions.
Offshore Demand Focused on 2035s: Long bond interest remained concentrated in the 2035 and 2043 benchmarks.
T-Bill Auction Oversubscription: Strong bank and fund appetite pushed bid-covers to 2.2x on the 364-day.
Yield Curve Held Its Shape: Minor steepening; long-end resistance remains intact.
Market Eyes November: The 25-year (15%) bond set for debut - redefining the curve's outer edge.
ALPHA BRIEF & MARKET ANALYSIS
Weekly Trading Recap
Total Turnover: UGX 856.2B
Peak Activity: 31 July (UGX 430.7B across 102 trades)
Key Movers:
2035s: Remained heavily bid, tight supply noted
2043s: Accumulated below par for high-coupon carry
2Y–5Y: Quiet, mostly reinvestment trades
Yield Curve & Strategy
Strategy Focus:
Accumulate 2Y over 364d bills: same yield, better duration
Re-enter 2039s <97.00 for spread recovery
Monitor new 25Y launch for curve extension plays
OUTLOOK INTO LATE AUGUST
No Bond Auctions Scheduled
Liquidity Likely to Remain Tight - expect low turnover
Fiscal Signals Expected - from Q1 FY2025/26 disbursement patterns
Watch Offshore Reallocation - especially around 2034s and 2043s
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