Impala Market Weekly Commentary: Uganda Bond Market (Week Ending 08 August 2025)

1. THE WEEK IN SUMMARY

• Turnover Slowed: Secondary market volumes dropped to UGX 291B, a 66% decline from the prior week. Liquidity remains tight across desks.

• Long-End Still in Focus: Despite the slowdown, 2043s and 2039s continued to dominate, attracting ~68% of total trades.

• Curve Steady: Minimal shifts across the yield curve, with the 2Y and 20Y holding around 15.75% and 18.20% respectively.

• No Primary Auctions: The week was auction-free, allowing traders to rebalance and await cues from the August auction calendar.

• Market Sentiment Mixed: Defensive positioning continues, but offshore bids indicate selective confidence in Uganda’s long bond premium.

2. SECONDARY MARKET ACTIVITY

Turnover Summary

• Total Volume UGX 291.1B

• Number of Trades 241

• Avg Trade Size ~UGX 1.21B

• Most Active Day 06 August (UGX 116.5B, 88 trades)

By Maturity Bucket

• < 1 Year: 52B (18%), 2025 & early 2026s

• 2 – 5 Years: 18B (6%), Low participation

• 6 – 10 Years: 9B (3%), Sparse trades

• 10 – 15 Years: 14B (5%), Light flow into 2033–2035

• 15 – 20 Years: 84B (29%), Strong activity in 2039s

• > 20 Years: 114B (39%), High flow into 2040–2043

3. MARKET OUTLOOK

• T-Bill Auction Expected on 14 August – liquidity likely to rotate short-term again.

• August remains auction-light – offering secondary players a window for curve plays.

• 25-Year Bond Launch in November – dealers starting to position portfolios.

• Yield compression possible if donor flows and fiscal discipline hold in Q1.

4. OTC DESK CALL TO ACTION

We invite traders, dealers, and investors to publish their bond runs on Impala Market.
Boost visibility, attract flows, and support market transparency.

To participate, email: impala.market@gmail.com

5. ALPHA BRIEF VS MARKET OUTCOMES

Last Week's Playbook:

• ✅ Buy 2039s below 97.00 → Market held ~96.50 to 97.30 range

• ✅ Stay defensive on mid-curve (2029–2034) → Volumes <5% of weekly trades

• ✅ Hold 2Y for short-term carry → 2Y trades cleared at 15.75%, matching expectations

Miss:

• ❌ Expected activity in 2034s didn’t materialize – demand remained skewed longer

6. YIELD CURVE COMPARISON – Trailing 6 Weeks

Trend: The Curve has been stable with mild long-end flattening. Spread between 2Y–20Y compressed from 260bps to ~245bps.

7. ALPHA INSIGHTS & INTERPRETATION

• 2Y vs 364d Parity – Hold 2Y for better rollover positioning

• 2043 Accumulation at Par – Favorable entry for high coupon investors

• Mid-curve barbell trades – Still unattractive due to illiquidity

• Political & Fiscal Watch – Limited bond supply may tighten spreads

8. TRADING STRATEGY – WEEK AHEAD

Action for each segment with Entry and Exit Targets with justification

• 2Y Bond: Accumulate, 100.00 (Entry) / 101.00 (Exit), Safe carry with T-Bill parity

• 2039: Re-enter, <97.00 / 98.50, Long bond spread trade

• 2043: Hold, 90.00–91.00 / 92.00, High coupon & durable demand

30–90–180 Day Allocation (unchanged):

• 30-day: 30% in T-Bills & 2Y

• 90-day: 50% in 2039 & 2043

• 180-day: 20% in cash or callable allocations

CLOSING THOUGHT

Uganda’s bond market remains range-bound but healthy. High real yields, an auction-light calendar, and selective offshore appetite offer patient investors an opportunity to rotate back into long bonds. Curve-aware positioning remains the best defence.