Impala Market Weekly Commentary: Uganda Bond Market Insights (Week Ending 02 May 2025)
By Impala Market Team
🗓️ Market Summary
Secondary market activity surged the week ending 02 May 2025, with traded volumes reaching UGX 862.7 billion, a 52% increase from UGX 567.2 billion last week. Notably, long-dated bonds such as the 2043s and 2039s dominated activity. The yield curve continued to bear-steepen, especially in the 15Y–20Y segment, while short-term T-Bill rates remained relatively anchored.
📈 Yield Curve Snapshot – Comparison (Week Ending)
🧠 Key Insight:
The yield premium on long bonds over mid-curve benchmarks (5Y and 7Y) remains elevated. This creates tactical buying opportunities for investors seeking to lock in real yields before inflation expectations shift.
💸 Auction Impact
While no Treasury Bill or Bond auctions occurred this week (and none are scheduled until 14 May 2025), the impact of last week’s T-Bill auction (24 April) reverberated through the short end:
91-day bill cut-off remained stable at 9.349%, aligning closely with secondary market rates.
High demand and reinvestment flows from maturing bills contributed to short-end support.
🔍 Weekly Alpha Brief
✅ 1. Follow the Flow: Trading this week spiked. Big players were actively buying and selling the 2043 and 2039 bonds. If you're a long-term investor, this shows there’s demand — and potential exit options later.
✅ 2. Long Bonds on Sale: Yields on long bonds are high (above 17%) — meaning prices are lower. If you believe inflation is under control, now is a good time to lock in high income.
✅ 3. Short-Term Plays Are Steady: Bills and short bonds didn’t change much. If you need liquidity in the next 3–12 months, short-term bonds are still safe parking spots.
✅ 4. No New Auctions = Quiet Before the Storm? With no auctions until mid-May, expect OTC market action to continue dominating. This is a good time to negotiate deals with less pressure from auction-driven demand.
✅ 5. Volatility Creates Opportunity: Bond prices are bouncing with every large trade. Stay informed. If you're a trader, ride the swings. If you’re a buyer, wait for dips.
🔮 Look Ahead: Week of 6–10 May 2025
No auctions scheduled (T-Bill or Bond).
OTC liquidity expected to remain strong as institutions rebalance.
14 May 2025 – Next Treasury Bond auction; expect pre-positioning in 2Y and 5Y segments.
📢 Market Call to Action
🎯 Traders, Dealers & Investment Clubs
Post your bond runs and trade interests on Impala Market. Let’s improve price discovery and deepen secondary market participation.
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